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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.